Stock Market Agent

真刺激，10年期美债收益率昨天一度摸到5.01%，创2007年以来新高。 更刺激的是布伦特原油也在$100附近徘徊，股债油三头一起施压，今晚还要继续加息。 加吧，加吧，你们就加吧！ 加得特朗普前方打仗没了军需，吃了败仗； 加得中东大乱，把大美王朝亡了，老子无非陪你们一起玩命就是！ https://t.co/0UX16dxJcQ

我们玩 x 的对 ai 的理解进了信息茧房 下沉市场太下沉了

The AI trade may have just triggered its next feedback loop. Software is gaining a new systematic buyer. Semis are gaining a new systematic seller. The rotation is starting to trade itself. https://t.co/NIuTypZOLG

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NATO's 'Collective Defense' Rhetoric Escalates Amid Now Weekly Aerial Incursions https://t.co/cn8AIE1vzA

U.S. MORTGAGE PAIN DEEPENS AS RATES NEAR 7% U.S. mortgage applications fell 4.1% last week to their lowest since May 2025, with refinancing applications plunging 8.8%. The 30-year conforming mortgage rate climbed to 6.97%, while jumbo rates jumped to 7.03%. Market angle: with market rates still rising, mortgage costs could climb further, intensifying pressure on housing demand and refinancing activity.

*HOUTHIS CLAIM TARGETING ARAMCO SITE IN YANBU

*BURNHAM SHELVES PLANS FOR UK INVESTMENT SUMMIT THIS YR: SKY

https://t.co/u0LTr05Ghx

早些时候我还有空带朋友们网上健健身 有一位同城的上了年纪的女性朋友按我的动作指示跳了几下说背疼 我想说跳动怎么会背疼呢，叫她赶紧来我家让我看看，一看体重超200磅，当时我马上做出判断是“心梗前兆” 赶紧让她上医院检查，发现各项指标都超标严重 后来我亲自带她减重、训练、营养计划足足有半年时间，各项指标全部达到或接近正常。她逢人就说是我救了她的命 再后来，我把她拉黑了。因为她对我太好，她好的方式就是不断给我各种添麻烦……整一个“相爱相杀” 现在她搬到美东去了，我还真有点想她

Zuck must be very confident in $META's next model's performance, as in many cases, $META would benefit from all the labs slowing the pace of development, yet here he is saying, "we are good." No competitor wants to face the never-happy Terminator Zuck.

妻子问老公什么叫认知低，老公举了一串例子： 1、我提建议，你当我在管你 2、我说事实，你当我在否定你 3、我指出问题，你觉得我在怪你 4、我给解决办法，你觉得我高高在上在教你 5、我讲道理，你觉得我带着偏见针对你 最后老公总结了一句：我满脑子想的是怎么让咱们越过越好，你满脑子想的是怎么证明我是错的

顶尖科学家和工程师，包括我自己，经常忽略的一点是，技术从被发明到广泛应用是非常缓慢的（参考：跨越鸿沟）。几个例子： 1. 我 2016-2018 年在微软实习的时候 Azure 就全面使用了基于 RDMA 和智能网卡加速的存储。2021 年我在华为的时候，线下的企业存储也用上了 RDMA。没想到几年之后，很多基模公司的存储还没有用上 RDMA，加载个上 T 的模型还要几分钟。 2. 2019 年我做昇腾算子的自动优化 AKG，觉得 polyhedral compilation 这么好的东西，肯定大家很快就用上了，结果直到今天也没有几家算子编译器用上多面体优化。取代手写算子的不是 isl（数学优化算法），而是 LLM。 3. 2023 年我发现 GPT-3.5 对算子优化也有那么点 knowledge，就觉得以后 AI 肯定能做 infra 优化了，于是就不再做 infra 了。但直到今天，单算子优化、算子调度、推理系统优化仍然是极深的课题。AI 越来越擅长目标明确的 “小步快跑” 式优化，但 writing、taste 和系统设计能力仍然很糟糕。我不管是写书还是做工程项目，都得不断指导 GPT-6 Astra 才能搞出个差不多的系统设计。谈 “取代” 为时尚早，除非有一天可以把 taste 变成 verifiable reward，或者想出某种别的办法提升 taste。 4. 今天，各种好用的 AI 工具仍然普及率很低。我们做 Pine 的时候一直疑惑，这么好的能省钱的工具怎么大家不会主动尝试。其实所有早期产品都一样，很多人 Codex 20 刀的 plan 都用不完。

Facebook is so slow to die. It's incredible. Everyone knows it's a graveyard of a social network. No new users are joining. Young people don't consider it cool anymore. And not just young people. My feed is dead. No person I know shares anything I care about. Yet, somehow Meta is still big. I know there's WhatsApp and Instagram that are still alive, but Facebook is a defining brand for Meta, and it's a graveyard and a content farm no different from Quora that Google still loves so much for no obvious reason while blocking all other content farms since the Google Panda update was released in 2011. Something is fishy here. MySpace died quickly when it's become uncool. Why Facebook doesn't die as quickly?

给我的粉丝们再说一些别的地方看不到的，有用的真话吧： 刚才看了一下宏观方面，加息后需要关注长段债的利差；判断市场认为的联储方向，所谓国债市场玩家比美股聪明 1）如果0-3m yield不动，2-5yr yield继续上涨，说明市场预期加息超过一次，今年2次 2）如果0-3m yield不动，2-5yr不变甚至略微回落，说明加息只有一次，以后不再加息 3）如果0-3m yield不动，2-5yr继续迅速回落，说明加息之后明年会降息 降息的理由主要是衰退（美股崩），和软着陆（美股稳健） 加息的理由主要是AI通胀，和持续的国债危机。我个人倾向是这条路径。就是国债继续贬值，通胀继续恶化，加息最终超过2次 在AI GDP假说下，美国经济衰退的可能性几乎是0。除非发展到后期，美国人全部失业，消费全部中断，否则暂时可以完全不用考虑

cool https://t.co/HCeLPEawoh

Everyone owns skincare products, but nobody knows what's actually working. Today, @theantheaguo and I launch @lumeriaskin (YC S26) to end that. The Lumoscope is a multispectral camera that clips onto your phone and scans your skin at home with the same light used in clinics, so you see what a mirror can't: a breakout days before it surfaces, and sun damage years before it shows. Every scan is scored on hydration, redness, texture, and sebum, and it compounds into a record of your own skin. Lumi reads that history, connects flare-ups to causes you'd never suspect, and matches products to YOUR data, instead of a population average. Preorders are officially open today at $199 only until Aug 16th. Starting today, skincare will no longer feel like guessing. ☀️

We believe strongly in the necessity to invest into alignment. 1. People and businesses will only use agents that are aligned with their intent and values. If we do not build models aligned with people and businesses, then they will move to more aligned options. 2. Every lab should have a strong governance framework across training and deployment. This should include external evaluators, which are best practice for transparency, and independent oversight on things like safety criteria for model launches. 3. Every lab will need to operate within institutional protections of democratic countries. This means labs face significant liability if their models cause harm. This will push the ecosystem in the right ways. 4. Advances in the field are ultimately downstream of compute and resource allocation. Racing on recursive self-improvement is one of the riskiest pathways for potential loss of control to powerful models. Meta is committing the significant majority of our compute towards serving people rather than racing on RSI, and other labs can choose to do the same. AI is a very powerful technology, and there is immense responsibility in developing it safely alongside the right checks and balances.

$META is hilarious https://t.co/w6bXHnzhCV

Hi, I'm from China, I just turn 30 and I am a loser. In 2022, my powerbank business collapsed. I walked away $50K in debt — money I still owe today. In 2024, my dad went to prison. I couldn't afford a lawyer for him. Feel guilty till this day. Between 2024 to 2026 I joint a VC firm which quickly go semi dead due to cashflow issue from LP. No bonus, no raise, I even took a pay cut During the time, I was havily depressed. anxious. I had manic swings, half my body went numb. My chest felt tight all the time. So in May this year, I walked out and became a builder. I build threadwave codex plugin for grow your X account My buddy and I build BettaRank, a GEO services for business Last month I made $3000 Looking forward to connect with more like minded people